Argentina escalates Falklands row as Trump wavers

Argentina has escalated its dispute over the Falkland Islands as the United States appears less willing to back Britain militarily. President Javier Milei used a late September address from the Casa Rosada to harden the country’s decades-old claim, threatening sanctions on oil companies and promising new funds for a naval base in Tierra del Fuego. The move comes just days after Donald Trump declined to rule out changing Washington’s stance on the territory.

Historical claim and new threats

Milei described the South Atlantic islands, which Britain has controlled since 1833, as “Argentinian, historically and legally” and said there was “no debate” over the matter. He warned Argentina would not “stand idly by” and needed to “recover” the territory, a place Argentina calls the Malvinas. The two nations went to war over the islands in 1982, a conflict that claimed 649 Argentine and 255 British lives.

The Argentine leader singled out the Sea Lion offshore development, a project roughly 220 kilometers north of the Falklands led by London-listed Rockhopper Exploration and Israel’s Navitas Petroleum. He described the drilling as a “concrete and urgent danger” to national sovereignty. “If we do not act firmly and swiftly today, in a few months they will have the material capacity to seize the oil reserves that lie under our sea,” he said.

The U.S. position remains unclear. In a GB News interview broadcast on September 3, Trump was pressed on whether Washington would support Britain militarily should the dispute turn violent again. He gave no assurance, instead repeating a complaint that London offered little help for the U.S. and Israeli-led bombing campaign against Iran. Earlier in the week, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he was open to reconsidering “every position,” including on the Falklands, though officials have since maintained the U.S. stance is unchanged.

British response and local politics

Britain’s foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, dismissed Milei’s claim, arguing that international law guarantees the islanders a say over their own future. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said the Argentine leader’s statement “tells us more about domestic politics in Argentina than it does about the Falkland Islands.” Streeting added that the islands “are British because Falkland Islanders choose to be British.”

Milei rejected that argument, stating that the remote archipelago’s population, as residents of what he called “usurped territory,” did not have “a legitimate right to self-determination.” He labeled a 2013 referendum, where 99.8% of islanders voted to remain British, as “invalid.” The president also unveiled a decree requiring state agencies to flag suspected legal breaches in the islands directly to the foreign ministry, which would then have the power to penalize companies and suppliers involved in oil and gas work there.

Separately, Milei said he would put a National Sovereignty Defence Bill before Congress to tighten sanctions law and set up a new National Security Council. He also plans to sign an emergency decree to increase defence ministry funding for an integrated naval base in Tierra del Fuego, a project begun in 2022 that he said would become the “most important logistics hub in the South Atlantic.”

Rockhopper and Navitas played down the impact of the threatened measures. In a joint statement, the companies said the episode was “not expected to have any material effect” on the Sea Lion timeline and that their licences, granted by the Falklands’ local government, remain valid with the “full and continuous support” of the UK government. The Sea Lion project, which lies at a depth of 450 meters, is targeting first oil in early 2028 with initial output of 55,000 barrels a day. Public filings reviewed by consultancy Netherland, Sewell & Associates suggest the project could generate between $2.85 billion and $8.8 billion for the Falklands government over roughly 40 years.

Argentina’s foreign minister, Pablo Quirno, said the presence of an Israeli company in the project would not damage relations with the Jewish state, one of Argentina’s closest allies under Milei. He noted that Navitas was already subject to Argentine sanctions and that the measures announced on September 3 had been in preparation for six months. Milei declared himself “the most Zionist president in the world” earlier this year and prides himself on being a close ally of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.